The US regional strategy lays in shambles, as its allies face pressure and its foes seek to take advantage.
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Contrary to what many observers believe, Turkey’s foreign policy is not expansionist. It is defensive and pragmatic.
Turkey wants to stop the advance of the regime forces but it cannot risk a confrontation with their main backer, Russia.
It is likely that Trump’s withdrawal from Syria will result in turmoil, just as Obama’s pullout from Iraq did in 2010.
Turkey’s military action on Syria will have consequences far beyond the ‘safe zone’ it is trying to establish.
There seem to be many clear paths that lead to confrontation and none that leads to peace and negotiations.
Counter-revolutionary forces are seeking to resurrect the military dictatorship model the Arab Spring dismantled.
Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria has sent Turkey, Russia and Iran scrambling to find a solution for the northeast.
In 2019, old conflicts in the Middle East will persist and new ones might erupt.
Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria could mark the start of a new ‘all-against-all’ war in the Middle East.
